Wine Forecasting: The Art of Dead Intelligence ~
True “forecasting” is NOT measuring what happened yesterday……
“True” forecasting is when the past is combined with all other facets of data and then analyzed together to make a determination of what ‘will happen in the future’.
Every influence, from foreign trade to currency exchange to supply chain to cultural influences to media phenomenons (see Purple Happy blog on “The Sexiest Loser), have either immediate or delayed impacts on what “will happen”.
For us in the wine industry, whether “supply-side” or “distrubution/retail-side”, demands of forecasting are much more than simple ‘insights’ & our hard earned business growth or start up $$ deserve a hard look into ‘true’ “Intelligent Forecasting”.
Wine sales ‘slumping’ for off-premise wine data’ shouldn’t be surprising us as multiple transitions are simultaneously occurring. (I.e.: consumption moving slightly back to on-premise + DTC sales taking some of the ‘shortfall’ in Grocery/Off-Premise sales).
The challenge with little ‘snippets’ of data like this are that they never give us the ‘whole picture’ to consider whether what we’re looking at is good or bad….it’s just a “little” picture inside of a big picture.
Get The Big Picture
